VMR Mining Update: GDP

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After registering continuous annual growth for nearly a quarter century, the US-India trade decreased in 2015 from the previous year. The two countries traded in goods and services worth $66.271 billion in 2015, which is $581 million lower than the trade volume in 2014.

The US trade deficit with India also slightly declined in 2015 to $23.21 billion, compared to $23.63 billion in 2014, a reduction of $6.18 million.

According to trade data released last week by the United States Census Bureau, total US exports to India in 2015 was $21.529 billion and total imports from India stood at $44.741 billion.

It was the first time in nearly a quarter century the bilateral trade registered a decline. The last year it happened was in 1991, when the trade volume shrank by nearly half a billion dollar from the previous year.

It is to be noted that the reduction in trade was recorded at a time when both the countries are trying to take overall bilateral trade to $500 billion in next five years, which is around $100 billion at present.

In 2014, export and import figures stood at $21.60 billion and $45.24 billion, respectively. The trade defi-cit figures with India are showing a downward movement for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008 that shattered the US economy. In 2009, the trade deficit with India shrank to $4.72 billion, from $8.02 billion in 2008.

Last year, US exports to India declined to $21.52 billion from $21.60 billion in 2014, and import declined from $44.74 billion from $45.24 billion in 2014.

Meanwhile, the overall goods and service deficit of the United States increased to $531.5 billion in 2015. According to the Census Bureau data, the overall goods and services deficit was $531.5 billion in 2015, up $23.2 billion from $508.3 billion in 2014. Exports were $2,230.3 billion in 2015, down $112.9 billion from 2014. Imports were $2,761.8 billion in 2015, down $89.7 billion from 2014.

Monthly figures for 2015 reveal that the highest trade deficit with India in 2015 was recorded in March with $2.30 billion, followed by May ($2.248 billion) and July ($2.244 billion).

June showed the lowest deficit with $ 1.44 billion fol-lowed by December ($1.47 billion) and February ($1.64).

According to the Embassy of India in Washington, DC, major US imports from India include textiles precious stones and metals, pharmaceuticals, fuel and oil, machinery and organic chemicals, while major American exports include precious stones and metals, aircraft and spacecraft parts, machinery, optical instruments and equipment, and plastic products.

India is the 11th largest trading partner of the United States, and trade with India comprised 1.7 percent of the country’s total foreign trade that raised five folds in the last decade.

President Mr. Barrack Obama had recently said that the country would look at export controls to ensure that Indian companies have the same access to American technologies.

“For our part, the United States continues to look at our export controls to make sure Indian companies have the same access to American technology as our closest allies,” Mr. Obama said.

Meanwhile, India is keen on the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement signed by the United States with 11 other nations, that helps the small business owners and farmers in the US sell their products in these countries by eliminating more than 18,000 taxes and other trade barriers.

(Source – The American Bazaar, 07-February-2016)

India will be a “star performer” among emerging market economies and is ex-pected to clock 7.7 percent growth in 2016, outshining China for the second consecutive year, a PwC report says.

According to the global consultancy firm, of the emerging economies, only In-dia is expected to grow faster in 2016 than its long-term average growth rate.

Among the seven emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, In-donesia and Turkey), India will be a “star performer”, while the Brazilian and Russian economies will contract and China will slow down, the report said.

“For the second year in a row, we expect India to grow faster than China, ex-panding by around 7.7 percent in real terms,” it said.

While the G7 economies (the US, the UK, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Canada) are expected to grow at fastest rate since 2010, led by the first two, the E7 emerging economies will grow slower than their trend rate (but still faster than the G7).

“We expect the US recovery to switch into a higher gear in 2016, while the UK will also enjoy continued consumer-led growth. We should also see at least the beginning of the end of the Eurozone crisis. The once-mighty BRICs, however, will have another tough year in 2016, with the notable exception of India,” PwC UK Chief Economist Mr. John Hawksworth said.

According to PwC, the Chinese GDP growth will ease to 6.5 percent in 2016, as growth in manufacturing and exports will continue to slow gradually. The re-port further noted that India will continue to reap the benefits of recent re-forms.

“The cut in the policy rate by the Reserve Bank of India from 8 percent to 6.75 percent last year will help support consumption and investment growth this year,” PwC said, adding that FDI in the country’s “underdeveloped” manufac-turing sector should also pick up as foreign investment caps have mostly been lifted.

Geopolitics, rather than economics, will be at the top of policymakers’ agendas, the report noted.
The migrant crisis in Europe, the response of the in-ternational community to the crisis in the Middle East and the referendum on the fate of the UK’s membership of the European Union, will be the three major geopolitical issues to dominate the news head-lines.

Meanwhile, commodity prices are expected to re-main lower for longer.
“This will be a good news for most businesses, house-holds and policymakers in commodity importing economies, but a challenge for countries that rely heavily on commodity exports,” the PwC report added.

(Source – The Financial Times, 10-January-2016)

India will continue to be the bright spot of the global economy and is projected to grow at a robust 7.8 per cent in fiscal 2016-17, more than a percentage point higher than China's, according to the World Bank.

In its latest Global Economic Prospect report - which is released every six months -- the World Bank marginally reduced India's growth rate - 0.2 per cent in 2015 and 0.1 per cent in both 2016 and 2017.

However, India continues to be the bright spot of the global economy as Chinese growth is projected to slow further. India, the dominant economy in Asia, is projected to grow by a robust 7.8 per cent this year and 7.9 per cent in the next two years.

The World Bank estimates that China grew at an estimated 6.9 per cent in 2015 (0.3 per cent less than its June projection).

According to the report, China is estimated to grow at 6.7 per cent in 2016 and 6.5 per cent each in 2017 and 2018. The growth rate projection is 0.3 per cent in 2016 and 0.4 per cent in 2017. Russia and Brazil are expected to remain in recession in 2016.

"In contrast to other major developing countries, growth in India remained robust, buoyed by strong investor sentiment and the positive effect on real incomes of the recent fall in oil prices," the World Bank said.

India's currency and stock markets were largely resilient over the past year, even during bouts of volatility in global financial markets, the report said.

Reserve Bank of India, it said, has rebuilt reserves while net FDI flows have remained positive. Ongoing fiscal consolidation in India has reduced the central government's fiscal deficit to close to 4 per cent of GDP (on a 12-month rolling basis), down from a peak of 7.6 per cent in 2009.

In the report, South Asia is projected to be a bright spot in the outlook for emerging and developing economies, with growth speeding up to 7.3 per cent in 2016 from 7 per cent in the year just ended.

The region has smaller trade links with China than other regions, and is a net importer of oil and will benefit from lower global energy prices. Pakistan (on a factor cost basis) is expected to accelerate to 4.5 per cent, the report said.

According to the report, weak growth among major emerging markets will weigh on global growth in 2016, but economic activity should still pick up modestly to a 2.9 per cent pace, from 2.4 per cent growth in 2015, as advanced economies gain speed.

"More than 40 per cent of the world's poor live in the developing countries where growth slowed in 2015," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.

"Developing countries should focus on building resilience to a weaker economic environment and shielding the most vulnerable. The benefits from reforms to governance and business conditions are potentially large and could help offset the effects of slow growth in larger economies," he said.

Global economic growth was less than expected in 2015, when falling commodity prices, flagging trade and capital flows, and episodes of financial volatility sapped economic activity.

Firmer growth ahead will depend on continued momentum in high income countries, the stabilisation of commodity prices, and China's gradual transition towards a more consumption and services-based growth model.

Developing economies are forecast to expand by 4.8 per cent in 2016, less than expected earlier but up from a post-crisis low of 4.3 per cent in the year just ended.

"There is greater divergence in performance among emerging economies. Compared to six months ago, risks have increased, particularly those associated with the possibility of a disorderly slowdown in a major emerging economy," World Bank Group Vice President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu said without naming any country.

"A combination of fiscal and central bank policies can be helpful in mitigating these risks and supporting growth," he said.

(Source: NDTV Profit, January 7, 2015)

Hailed as "the bright spot" in a gloomier global economy, India outpaced China as the world's fastest growing economy in 2015 and is expected to clock 7 to 7.5 percent growth in the new year provided the reform momentum continues and the business environment improves.

Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley says that subdued global economy and moderate private sector investment will continue to pose challenges, while his top priorities for the new year include rolling out the long-delayed Goods and Services Tax (GST), rationalizing direct taxes, ensuring further ease of doing business and putting more money for social and physical infrastructure.

While the need for further growth remain continued to be underlined by the experts as well as the policymakers as a key requirement for India to maintain its growth momentum, World Bank's Chief Economist Mr. Kaushik Basu is confident that India can continue to top the charts with the fastest growth among all major economies.

Expecting India to grow at 7 to 7.5 percent in 2016, Mr. Basu said, "India will still be the leader among major economies. Not only in 2015, but we expect India to lead that chart in 2016 as well."

It will still remain off the targeted growth rate of 8 to 10 percent in the foreseeable future unless the reforms momentum shifts to a much faster gear.

Going forward, Mr. Jaitley will have a tough time in sticking to the fiscal road-map (3.5 percent of GDP in 2016-17), while taking care of additional outgo towards 7th Pay Commission award and One Rank One Pension (OROP) for retired defense personnel.

For the current financial year ending in March, the latest estimates peg the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate at 7 to 7.5 percent, which will be significantly lower than 8.1 to 8.5 percent predicted by the government in February 2015.

Although the year began with a lot of promise, the growth rate could not pick up as much as expected, mainly because of faltering global economy, decline in exports, deficient rains, and an inability of the government to push big-ticket reforms like GST and land acquisition law.

India's economic growth still accelerated to 7.4 percent in the July-September quarter, overtaking China as the world's fastest growing major economy, on pick up in manufacturing, mining and services sectors. Multilateral lending agency International Monetary Fund (IMF) termed India as a 'bright spot' in otherwise slowing global economy.

The 1.25 percent reduction in key interest rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2015, coupled with a host of steps taken by the government to improve the ease of doing business, is likely to give a push to the economy.

In 2015, the economy has been a beneficiary of a huge meltdown in crude oil prices, giving a great elbow room to the government to keep its finances in shape in a year, which otherwise witnessed subdued domestic demand and quite a sluggish external market.

While exports were bruised and kept declining for the entire year, private consumption within the domestic market received a cushion from the falling auto fuel bills.

Mr. Jaitley said that rolling out GST regime is "certainly" doable in 2016 and he was in "continuous touch" with the Congress in a bid to persuade them to cooperate in Rajya Sabha for passing the Constitution amendment bill for the new indirect tax regime.

"I hope that in the next session (of Parliament), the GST will make headway," he said.
Looking back at 2015, Mr. Jaitley said India has been the bright spot with growth prospects of 7 to 7.5 percent despite global slowdown and adversities, and expressed optimism that the growth rate which is "quite good" will improve further in the months to come.

Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) Director General Mr. Chandrajit Banerjee said that 2015 is coming to an end with some commendable achievements for the Indian economy. During the year, the growth momentum picked up, inflation climbed down and the twin deficits remained in control, he said.

"India was able to gain from the decline in international prices of oil and other commodities. This helped the turnaround in the economy," he said.

In the mid-year economic analysis tabled in Parliament, the Finance Ministry said the economy has consolidated the gains achieved in resolving macro economic stability from the beginning of the last fis

cal.

"Given the challenges of real GDP measurement, we estimate that real GDP for the year as a whole will lie in the 7 to 7.5 percent range. Consumer Price Index (CPI) also known as retail inflation is likely to be within the RBI's target of about 6 percent," the Mid-Year Economic Analysis 2015-16 tabled in Parliament said.

(Source – Assorted with the inputs from PTI)

The U.S. is expected to retain its status as the world's largest economy for a few years longer than analysts previously anticipated, thanks in large part to China's recent financial slowdown, according to a recent study from the U.K.- based Centre for Economics and Business Research.

But over the course of the next 16 years, the global economic landscape is expected to shift seismically from where it now stands. Though the U.S.

is still expected to hold a spot among the exclusive G-8 collection featuring some of the world's largest economies by the year 2031, a handful of other current mem-bers are likely to be less fortunate.

In 2031, China will be the largest economy in the world with a gross domestic product valued at $35.26 trillion, according to the CEBR. The U.S. will play second fiddle to the Asian behemoth, with GDP clocking in at $33.66 trillion.

The two world powers are expected to swap places in 2029, which gives the U.S. a little more time on top than the economic consultancy previously projected. Last year, the CEBR predicted the switch would take place in 2025. It attributed "slower Chinese GDP growth and a weaker currency" to the timing adjustment.

By some measures, China is already considered the world's largest economy. According to a report released last year by the International Monetary Fund that compared international economies by adjusting for exchange rates and purchasing power, China's economy had already surpassed America's as the world's largest.

But most analysts don't consider that purchasing power metric to be a primary measuring stick. The U.S. is still generally hailed as the world's largest economy and is likely to retain that title for at least the next decade.

"No doubt, [China's] GDP is worse than that 6 or 7 percent that they report," says Mr. John Canally, a senior vice president and chief economic strategist at LPL Financial. "No doubt they'll lower that target next year, but there's also no doubt that they'll pull out all the stops to make sure that the Chinese economy at least stabilizes next year."

China and the U.S. are hardly the only nations whose economic standing is expected to shift by 2031, according to the CEBR. France and Italy are expected to lose their places among the eight largest economies in the world, to be replaced by South Korea and Brazil. And that could mean major shake-ups in trade groups and economic organizations are right around the corner.

"Some of the weaker European economies like France and Italy are slipping way down the table. They face exclusion from bodies like the G-8 and pos-sibly eventually the G-20 as their economies persis-tently underperform," a statement accompanying the report said. "International bodies are likely to have to change their membership to reflect the changing balance of economic power."

The internationally influential G-8 group of major world economies (which has consisted of the U.S., Germany, Russia, France, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and Canada, though Russia was suspended from inclusion last year over its actions in Crimea) already isn't or-ganized based solely on GDP value. China and India, for instance, are absent from the group and countries like Canada and Russia – neither of which cracks the world's top eight in terms of GDP – are or were previ-ously included.

So it is likely that at least some adjustment will take place in the G-8 and organizations similar to it going forward. Adding weight to that projection, the CEBR said the world's slowest-growing region over the next decade and a half will be Western Europe, with its share of the global economy falling by more than 40 percent by 2031.

The 19-country eurozone's collective GDP has expanded by an average of only 0.2 percent per quarter since 2010. For comparison's sake, the U.S. has maintained an average of more than 2.1 percent over the same window.

"Although France continues militarily to punch above its weight, replacing the U.K. as the U.S.'s leading military partner in the Middle East, economically the picture is dire," the report said. "France is forecast to slip from being the fifth-largest world economy in 2013 to the ninth-largest by 2031, leading it no longer to qualify on economic grounds for member-ship of the G-8 largest economies."

The United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, is expected to crack the Top 30 largest economies for the first time by 2031, while Asian nations like Malaysia and the Philippines also are projected to make their way onto the list. Indonesia is expected to jump from the 17th slot to the 11th.

But perhaps the biggest mover is India, an economy that ranked as only the ninth largest in 2014. The country will move up to No. 3 by 2031, according to the CEBR, and has already eclipsed China in terms of annual growth. India is currently the sole bright spot among the emerging market growth engines known as the BRICS nations (which also include Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa), and the World Bank projects the country's expected 7.5 percent GDP growth in 2015 (which will inflate up to 8 percent by 2017) will outpace most other major world economies.

"The world's most populous nation has made a start in 2015 in catching up with China, with faster economic growth than China for the first time in years," the CEBR report said. "But there is still a long way to go, and India is only likely to overtake China at some point in the second half of the 21st century."

Indeed, it's worth noting that India's GDP is expected to be valued at $10.63 trillion in 2031. That's still smaller than the current sizes of both the Chinese and American economies, and it will be less than a third the size of either in 2031. So although the U.S. is expected to fall to No. 2, it's unlikely any nation other than China and maybe India will catch the country in the foreseeable future.

And considering the populations of both China and And considering the populations of both China and India dwarf that of the U.S., that's not entirely surprising.

"The United States remains the most successful of the world's older economies and the world's techno-logical leader," the report said. "Indeed, as software becomes the world's key industry, the U.S.'s position as a technology leader is reinforced."

(Source – U.S. News, 28-December-2015)

China, the world’s largest coal consumer, has decided to halt new coal mines approval for the next three years while it continues cutting output at existing operations, in a new effort to shrink both oversupply and a worsening pollution crisis.

Beijing will shut more than 1,000 coal mines next year, taking out 60 million metric tons of unneeded capacity

As part of the tough rules implemented by the national energy regulator, Beijing will shut more than 1,000 coal mines next year, taking out 60 million metric tons of unneeded capacity, state-run agency Xinhua News reported.

China's chronic air pollution generally gets worse in winter, when power consumption —much of it fuelled by coal — rises along with demand for heating. Earlier this month, capital Beijing issued its first-ever red alert for pollution. Poisonous air quality prompted the government to close schools, force motorists off the road and shut down factories for more than 72 hours.

The government has also readjusted its targeted energy mix for 2016. Under the new blueprint, non-fossil fuels will make up 13.2% of the country's energy, an increase from 12% this year. The ratio of natural gas will also increase to 6.2% from 6% while coal usage will be reduced to 62.6% from around 64.4% this year.

For the next five years, the Chinese government also aims to add over 20 million kilowatts of installed wind power and more than 15 million kilowatts of installed photovoltaic power.

(Source: Mining.com)

Notwithstanding a sharp cut in the government's growth forecast at the fag end, 2015 will go down as the year when India emerged as the fastest-growing large economy, despite setbacks such as 12 months of negative export growth, another bad monsoon and roadblocks to the far-reaching goods and services tax regime.

In addition to growth, the economy also saw some positives. Global crude oil prices fell to the lowest levels in over a decade, checking the balance of payments from going awry, inflation rate remained more-or-less under control, despite spikes in food prices, and economic reforms got a big push, notably in the form of further opening up of a host of industries to foreign equity.

India's real GDP in the first half of the current fiscal grew at 7.2 percent as per official data, which was slightly lower in comparison to the GDP growth of 7.5 percent in the previous fiscal.

India's external position improved at the same time. Forex reserves are a little above $350 billion in November 2015 as compared to a little over $270 billion in July 2013. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have increased to $17 billion in the first half of 2015-16 in comparison to $15.8 in the same period last year. The second quarter's current account deficit logged at a level of 1.6 percent of GDP.

However, the global slowdown continued to weigh on exports, which have declined for 12 straight months. The government said this was also pulling down growth but felt the situation would improve in the coming months.

On the fall in the value of the Indian rupee, the finance ministry's mid-term economic review attributed it considerably to the major devaluation of the Chinese Yuan.

The year also began with India's changing the way it calculated its gross do-mestic product under a new series, though the controversy over the changed methodology employed refuses to die down with economists even terming it obscure.

Changing the base year to 2011-12 from 2004-05 in January, the Central Statistics Office said India's real GDP, that is adjusted for inflation, grew by seven percent in the first quarter of this fiscal, slower than the 7.5 percent expansion in the quarter before - but much higher than 6.7 percent registered in the first quarter of the last fiscal.

Mr. Arun Kumar, till recently a professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University here, told IANS that in view of negligible industrial growth, drought-like conditions in past years and no substantial increase in profits and wages, the new numbers fall flat from the point of credibility.

"Even input costs, that are now low with falling oil prices, were not low in the period 2011-12. Let the statistics office show the growth figures for up to 10 years prior to the base year for us to consider the new series seriously," Mr. Kumar said.

The midyear review released this month lowered the economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to the 7-7.5 percent range, from the previously projected 8.1-8.5 percent, mainly because of lower agricultural output due to deficit rainfall.

It also said there may be a need to reconsider next year's fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent.

"GDP growth has been powered only by private consumption and public investment is a concern. The proposed wage hike for government workers may impact plan for next fiscal." The economy continues to send "mixed signals" over growth, while all economic indicators were not yet aligned in pointing to a higher trajectory of growth, it said.

India's eight core industries, representing major infrastructure sectors, grew at 2.3 percent in the April-September period of the current fiscal, compared to a rate of 5.3 percent in the same period of the previous fiscal - the fall in growth rate caused by lower expansion in electricity, coal and cement sectors and negative growth in steel and natural gas sectors.

Mr. Jaitley's first full union budget also announced an agreement earlier in the year with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that it constitute a Monetary Policy Committee to determine by majority vote on the pol-icy rate required to achieve the inflation target.

Meanwhile, RBI Governor Mr. Raghuram Rajan cut the interest rate in January for the first time in nearly two years and followed up with two other reductions to bring down the central bank lending rate to 6.75 percent.

Politics intervened during the year to prevent the enactment of India's most important reform of its indirect tax regime by way of the pan-India Goods and Services Tax ( GST) that the government has targeted for implementing from April next year, because the ruling NDA does not have the numbers to pass the constitution amendment bill in the upper house.
Highlights

Real GDP in first half of fiscal grew at 7.2 percent
India emerges as fastest-growing large economy
Forex reserves of over $352 billion as on the first week of December.
FDI inflows increased to $17 billion in the first half of 2015-16
Indian basket of crude oils fell below $40 a barrel
Foreign investment limits raised in defense, real estate and insurance, foreign equity in railways
Retail and wholesale inflation rates rose in November to 5.41 percent and (-)1.9 percent respectively, largely due to an increase in food prices
Infrastructure sectors grew at 2.3 percent in the first half of fiscal
Government lowers GDP growth estimate for fiscal by one percent to 7-7.5 percent

(Source – The Economic Times, 24-December-2015)

The Indian economy could register an over two fold growth if the current growth rate is sustained, Minister of State for Finance Mr. Jayant Sinha said in New Delhi last week.

"If we grow at 7 percent, we will double our economy in a decade. We are going to go from $2 trillion economy to $4 trillion economy, if the rupee strengthens, to may be $5 trillion economy. That's going to happen, we just have to keep doing what we are doing," Mr. Sinha said at the FICCI’s AGM.

"About $4 trillion GDP per capita will roughly double to $3,500 from about $1,600 per capita today. At $3,500, we are solidly middle income," he added.

On fiscal deficit, he said the government will meet the target for current as well as for the next fiscal.

"We will achieve 3.9 percent fiscal deficit target for the current fiscal and 3.5 percent for the next fiscal," he said, adding that next year will be challenging because of implementation of the 7th Pay Commission and One Rank One Pension (OROP).

"It's going to be a challenging year because we have the headwinds of two major factors that are slowing us down... agriculture and exports slowdown. Those two factors are dragging us down," he said.

In addition to that, the government has to deal with OROP and 7th Pay Commission liability which is going to be Rs. 1 lakh crores.

With regard to key legislation's, Mr. Sinha said "on our side we are ready and prepared to introduce the bankruptcy legislation. If indeed we are able to bring in the bankruptcy legislation, it will be the second best relative to getting GST."

The government has three working days to introduce the Bill as the winter session of Parliament ends on Wednesday.

"We have said all along that our two top priorities are GST and the bankruptcy legislation. We are continuing to discuss GST legislation for which we have not got support from our colleagues, from principal opposition party," he said.

(Source – Assorted with the inputs from PTI)

Baltic Report Date: 09 DECEMBER 2015

BDI Baltic Exchange Dry Index 546 -5

BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index(basis 180000 dwt vsl) 857 -13

BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 412 -8

BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 460 -1

BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 286 0

Bunker Prices 10-12-2015(*)

IFO380 IFO180 MDO MGO

Singapore 186.00 198.50 367.50 377.50

Rotterdam 159.50 204.00 - 336.50

Houston 160.50 243.00 - 403.50

Fujairah 186.00 228.50 - 591.50

New York 194.00 275.50 - 398.50

*courtesy bunkerworld.com

Baltic Exchange Capesize Index

Route Description Value($) Change

C2 160000lt Tubarao to Rotterdam(long tons) 5.222 +0.205

C3 160000 or 170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 9.285 +0.095

C4 150000mt Richards Bay to Rotterdam 4.375 +0.010

C5 160000 or 170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 4.077 -0.096

C7 150000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 5.780 -0.070

C15 160000mt Richards Bay to Fangcheng 6.477 -0.009

C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar/Hamburg transatlantic r/v 8895 -155

C9_14 180000mt Continent/Mediterranean trip China-Jpn 14365 -100

C10_14 180000mt China-Japan transpacific r/v 6777 -259

C14 180000mt China-Brazil round voyage 7509 0

C16 180000mt Revised backhaul -841 -59

Weighted Time Charter Average(C8_14,C9_14,C10_14,C14 & C16) 7486 -123

The following route does not contribute to the BCI

C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 7.170 -0.025

BCI 4TC - 172,000 4TC average 6179 -143

Baltic Exchange Panamax Index

Route Description Value($) Change

P1A_03 74000mt Skaw-Gibraltar, transatlantic r/v 3040 -30

P2A_03 74000mt Skaw-Gibraltar trip to Taiwan-Jpn 6877 -148

P3A_03 74000mt Japan-S.Korea transpacific r/v 3050 -73

P4_03 74000mt Japan-S.Korea trip to Skaw-Passero 211 -9

Weighted Time Charter Average(P1A_03,P2A_03,P3A_03 & P4_03) 3295 -65

(The following route does not contribute to the BPI)

P3A-IV 74000mt Newcastle to Qingdao - implied voyage 6.19 -0.17

Baltic Exchange Supramax Index

Route Description Value($) Change

S1A 52454 Antwerp - Skaw trip to Singapore-Japan 7575 -71

S1B 52454 Canakkale trip to Singapore-Japan 6457 -122

S2 52454 S.Korea-Jpn,one Austral. or Pacific r/v 5100 +10

S3 52454 S.Korea-Jpn trip to Skaw-Gibraltar 3100 +42

S4A 52454 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 6681 -50

S4B 52454 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 1382 +53

Weighted Time Charter Average(S1A,S1B,S2,S3,S4A & S4B) 4812 -11

Baltic Exchange Supramax - Asia

S8 52454 S.China trip via Indonesia to EC India 5238 +22

S10 52454 S.China via Indo to S.China 3794 +28

S11 52454 Mid China, Australian or transpacific rv 4486 +15

Weighted Time Charter Average(S8,S10 & S11) 4506 +22

The routes below do not form part of the index calculation

S5 52454 WAfr trip via ECSA to N.China 5288 -130

S9 52454 WAfr trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 3918 -80

Baltic Exchange Supramax 58

S1B_58 58328 Canakkale trip via Med or BlSea to China-S.Korea 7121 -161

S1C_58 58328 USG trip to China-S.Japan 8944 -145

S2_58 58328 N.China one Australian or Pacific r/v 5371 +14

S3_58 58328 N.China trip to W.Africa 3244 +19

S4A_58 58328 USG trip to Skaw-Passero 7288 -37

S4B_58 58328 Skaw-Passero trip to USG 1682 +46

S5_58 58328 W.Africa trip via ECSA to N.China 5913 -147

S8_58 58328 S.China trip via Indonesia to ECI 5932 +26

S9_58 58328 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 4584 -114

S10_58 58328 S.China trip via Indonesia to S.China 4148 +25

Time Charter Average 5023 -17

Baltic Exchange Supramax 58 - Asia

S8_58 58328 S.China trip via Indonesia to EC India 5932 +26

S10_58 58328 S.China via Indo to S.China 4148 +25

S11_58 58328 Mid China, Australian or transpacific rv 4964 +14

Time Charter Average 5015 +22

Baltic Exchange Handysize Index

Route Description Value($) Change

HS1 28000 Skaw-Passero trip to Rio de Janeiro-Recalada 3003 -6

HS2 28000 Skaw-Passero trip to Boston-Galveston 3544 -22

HS3 28000 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip to Skaw-Passero 4682 -84

HS4 28000 USG trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 4999 +57

HS5 28000 SE Asia trip via Australia to Spore-Japan 3874 +6

HS6 28000 SKorea-Japan via NOPAC to Spore-Japan 4791 +5

Weighted Time Charter Average(HS1,HS2,HS3,HS4,HS5 & HS6) 4195 -4

+++

TIMECHARTER

CAPE

'Stella Ada' 2011 180223 dwt dely Zhoushan 15 December trip via West Australia redel Singapore-Japan $7,000 daily - Panocean

KAMSARMAX

'SBI Capoeira' 2015 84978 dwt dely aps Ponta Da Madeira 08/09 Dec trip redel US Gulf intention pig iron $4,500 daily - ABT

'Thalassini' 2005 82977 dwt dely aps EC South America 25/30 Dec trip redel SE Asia $6,750 daily + $180,000 bb - Marubeni - <fixed last week>

'Semiramis' 2013 82301 dwt dely Kunsan 08/12 Dec trip via Queensland redel EC India $4,000 daily - China Shipping

PANAMAX

'Baltic Wasp' 2014 64000 dwt dely aps Grays Harbour prompt trip via Nopac redel Philipines $7,400 daily +130,000 bb - Olam

SUPRAMAX

'Platon' 2011 58502 dwt dely S Brazil prompt trip redel Egypt $6,000 daily - Bunge

'Vindonissa' 2012 58097 dwt dely E C South America 21/24 Dec trip redel SE Asia $8,000 daily + $30,000 bb - Caravel

'Densa Jaguar' 2012 57637 dwt dely aps Indonesia prompt trip redel India intention coal $8,500 daily - Hayne Shipping

'Ocean Treasure' 2002 51201 dwt dely Singapore prompt trip via Indonesia redel China intention coal $4,000 daily - Noble Miracle

HANDY

'St George' 2009 32657 dwt dely Canakkale prompt trip via Black Sea redel Tunisia $4,900 daily - Clipper

PERIOD

'Danae' 2001 75106 dwt dely Singapore 09/13 Dec 11/14 months trading redel worldwide $4,900 daily - Norden - <fixed last week>

'Angelina' 2001 74540 dwt dely ex dd Zhoushan spot 4/7 months trading redel worldwide $5,000 daily - Itiro

'Sunbay' 2008 56842 dwt dely Ulsan 20/23 Dec 5/8 months trading redel worldwide $4,900 daily - Hayne Shipping

VOYAGES

ORE

'Seaforce' 2015 170000/10 W Australia/Qingdao 15/19 Dec $4.25 fio scale/30000shinc - Topsail - <adds name to report of 8/12>

'Ocean Courtesey' 2008 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 20/24 Dec $4.10 fio scale/30000shinc - Rio Tinto

'Stella Cherise' 2010 170000/10 Saldanha Bay/Qingdao 18/22 Dec $7.25 fio scale/30000shinc - Anglo American

'Oldendorff TBN' 170000/10 Tubarao/Rotterdam 13/27 Jan $5.60 plt fio 6 days shinc - TKS

'Anglo American TBN' 170000/10 Saldanha Bay/Qingdao 24/30 Dec $6.95 basis 1.25% total fio 90000shinc/30000shinc - Ore & Metal

'TBN' 170000/10 W Australia/China 26/31 Dec $4.15 fio scale/30000shinc - RGL

'Classic Maritime TBN' 170000/10 CSN/Qingdao 03/12 Jan $8.80 basis 1.25% total fio scale/30000shinc - CSN

'TBN' 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 24/28 Dec $4.10 fio scale/30000shinc - Rio Tinto

'TBN' 170000/10 W Australia/China 26/31 Dec $4.15 fio scale/30000shinc – RGL

'TBN ' 170000/10 W Australia/Qingdao 25/30 Dec $4.10 fio scale/30000shinc - Pacific Bulk - <fixed 8/12>

'TBN' 170000/10 W Australia/Qingdao 25/30 Dec $4.20 fio scale/30000shinc - Pacific Bulk - <fixed 8/12>

'Mineral Antwerpen' 2003 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 21/25 Dec $4.10 fio scale/30000shinc - Rio Tinto

'TBN' 130000/10 Narvik/Hamburg 19/28 Dec $3.30 fio 50000shinc/35000shinc - Salzgitter

'TBN' 59000/10 bauxite Kamsar/San Ciprian 18/24 Dec $5.25 fio 25000shinc/15000shinc - United

+++

(Source BDI, December 9, 2015)

The rate of industrial growth, measured in terms of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased by 4.0 per cent during April-September, 2015-16 as compared to the growth of 2.9 per cent during the same period of previous year i.e. 2014-15. All the three industrial sectors viz. mining, manufacturing and electricity have registered positive growth during April-September in the current year.

The Government has taken a number of measures including administrative and regulatory, to accelerate the growth of industrial sector. For creation of conducive business environment, the Government is constantly simplifying and rationalizing the processes and the procedures for boosting investor sentiment, simplifying the policy and procedures for encouraging Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and correcting the inverted duty structure.

Some of the recent initiatives also include pruning the list of industries that can be considered as defence industries requiring industrial license, two extensions of two years each permitted in the initial validity of three years of the industrial license to take it up to seven years, removal of stipulation of annual capacity in the industrial license, and deregulating the annual capacity for defence items for Industrial License. For defence projects validity of industrial licenses has been increased to 15 years, which can be further increased to 18 years.

With a view to liberalise and simplify the FDI policy, so as to provide ease of doing business in the country leading to larger FDI inflows, the Government has brought in FDI related reforms and liberalisation in a number of major sectors of the economy. Changes introduced in the policy include increase in sectoral limits, bringing more activities under automatic route and easing of conditionalities for foreign investments.

The Government has launched the e-biz Mission Mode Project under the National e-Governance Plan which has simplified procedures and as on date provides 29 G2B (Government to Business) services - 18 Central and 11 State/Municipal services, online. The Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) project is under implementation. In addition, the Government has conceptualized Amritsar Kolkata Industrial Corridor, Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor, Bengaluru Mumbai Economic Corridor and the Vizag-Chennai Industrial Corridor (as the first phase of an East Coast Economic Corridor), and setting up a National Industrial Corridor Development Authority (NICDA) for coordinating and overseeing progress of the various industrial corridors.

The Government has also launched “Make in India” programme with 25 thrust sectors to provide a major push to manufacturing in India. An Investor Facilitation Cell has been created viz ‘Invest India’ to assist, guide, handhold and facilitate investors during the various phases of business life cycle. This Cell provides necessary information on vast range of subjects; such as policies of the Ministries and State Governments, various incentive schemes and opportunities available, to make it easy for the investors to make necessary investment decision. Information on 25 thrust sectors has been put up on ‘Make in India’s web portal (http://www.makeinindia.com) along with details of FDI Policy, National Manufacturing Policy, Intellectual Property Rights and Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor and other National Industrial Corridors.

(Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry)

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